Sunday, November 11, 2012

Michigan 38, Northwestern 31

Kenny Demens makes the game-clinching tackle (image via AnnArbor.com)
Kenny Demens goes boom.  In Friday's game preview, I predicted that Demens would have a big game.  It seemed like the coaches were trying to give him a breather by playing Joe Bolden a little bit, but I'm really not sold on Bolden being ready for Big Ten play right now; he'll be good but he's not yet.  Back to my point, Demens stepped up in a big way late in the game by making the final two tackles, including a thumping hit on Northwestern superback Tyris Jones to end the game.  Games against a team like Northwestern set up well for someone like Demens, who can take on Northwestern-caliber linemen and still make plays on interior runs.  He did get burned for a touchdown in pass coverage, but he was covering a wide receiver, which was hardly a fair contest.  Demens ended the game with 9 tackles and 2 tackles for loss.

Devin Gardner for Heisman? Okay, not really the Heisman, but Gardner has played really well in Denard Robinson's stead.  Brady Hoke insists that the offense doesn't really change when Gardner takes over for Robinson, but nobody who watches these games can actually believe that.  I felt bad for Kain Colter when he got hurt late in the game, but I didn't feel bad for Northwestern, because Michigan was already down their starting quarterback.  For Gardner to be so inexperienced and still have the ability to come out and beat the #24 team in the country speaks well for him.  And, oh by the way, some guys really stepped up and made plays for Gardner.  The junior QB finished the game 16/29 for 286 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 1 interception, along with 9 rushes for 47 yards and 2 touchdowns.

Roy Roundtree is stepping up. I don't know why, but Roundtree has stepped up his game now that Gardner is playing quarterback.  Robinson and Roundtree are close friends, so I'm sure it's not related to a lack of personal chemistry.  It just seems like Roundtree has realized that he needs to step up to help out his inexperienced quarterback.  I wish it had happened earlier, but I'll take it now.  He had 5 receptions for 139 yards, and his final reception in regulation was a juggling catch he made while the Northwestern defensive back interfered with him. (No interference was called, but it should have been.)

Michigan won the game in the trenches.  Brady Hoke's philosophy seems to be that he wants to wear teams down, and Michigan will do so more consistently when the offensive line improves.  Right now Michigan's interior offensive linemen are just average, but by the fourth quarter, they had sufficiently worn down the Wildcats' interior.  Toussaint started to get some running room . . . which is why I was frustrated with Michigan's play call on the penultimate regulation drive, after Dennis Norfleet had returned a kickoff to Michigan's 47-yard line.  Al Borges had overused the play action pass up to that point, because Michigan hadn't been running the ball.  So when Borges called a post-wheel (for Gallon and Funchess, respectively), Northwestern hadn't learned to respect the run yet.  He put the game on Gardner's shoulders, and while Gardner has been playing well, he hadn't been in a situation this year when Michigan needed  a crunch-time drive from him.  Michigan could have moved the ball by running on the interior with about four minutes left and down by three points.  What happened the next time Michigan had a chance to run it, in overtime?  Fitzgerald Toussaint ran for 5 yards, then 3 yards, and then Gardner ran a bootleg for the game-winning touchdown.

Stop kicking to Venric Mark!  Mark is one of the most explosive players in the Big Ten, but Michigan's kickers and punters couldn't seem to help themselves from kicking to him.  He burned Michigan for a 96-yard kickoff return late in the game, but one of the Wildcats held Brandin Hawthorne and got flagged for it.

Northwestern doesn't throw well except against Michigan. Backup quarterback Trevor Siemian completed 6/7 passes for 87 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Kain Colter was slightly less successful at 8/14 for 96 yards and 1 touchdown.  Michigan struggled with the pace of Northwestern's offense, and the Wolverines were beaten on the edge several times (partly because of numerous obvious holding calls that weren't noticed by the referees).  Northwestern could run and pass on Michigan's defense, and there was no consistent answer until overtime.  That answer was, of course, Kenny Demens.

Jordan Kovacs is now #11.  I don't really care.  It's just a number.  Before the game Kovacs was honored by being given the #11 jersey that was previously worn by the three Wistert brothers - Francis, Albert, and Alvin.  I've seen the argument that this prevents Kovacs from becoming a legend jersey down the road, but come on, Kovacs isn't a legend.  He's a walk-on who turned into a pretty good player, but that doesn't make him a legend.  I also don't think Michigan should give Legend jerseys to true freshmen, who still have three years to taint the number with drunk driving arrests, stealing laptops, etc.

Michigan is 7-3.  The team and fans should consider themselves slightly lucky to come out of this weekend with a victory.  Being 7-3 at this juncture isn't too bad, considering that Michigan has been without its starting quarterback for the last 2.5 games.  Regardless of the opponents, they have scored 35 and 38 points with the backup QB.  The defense has picked up its game at critical junctures, and the offense is doing enough to make games winnable, at least when Russell Bellomy isn't in the game.  The Wolverines should  beat Iowa, and that would lead up to the ballyhooed game against Ohio State.

21 comments:

  1. Okay, regarding the offensive line ... what's the issue here? It has to be some combination of the following:

    (a) Player talent and skill shortfall
    (b) Player effort shortfall
    (c) Coaching shortfall

    My sense is you're suggesting the "just average" interior offensive line issue is mostly "a" above. It's not that they're not doing their best, it's just that their best is not up to typical Michigan expectations and needs. Would I be correct?

    What about "c" ... what's your opinion of Darrell Funk and his coaching of the line?

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    1. I don't think it's B. I think it's mostly A. I've never been impressed with Barnum, Mealer is an odd fit as a center, and I've always thought Omameh would make a better tackle. So they're misfits in there.

      As for Darrell Funk...I'm not impressed, but I wouldn't be ready to fire him, either. I think Lewan has taken a step backward, which is the biggest indictment against Funk; however, he's working with some guys who are substandard Michigan linemen, so I hate to be too harsh on the coach.

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    2. Wasn't Funk a better coach last year when he had Molk and better players? I think it's on the players.

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    3. Molk was very good, but he was very good before Funk arrived. Mealer is clearly a step down, and there's no getting around that. It's just a question of whether those guys are playing up to their potential.

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    4. Thanks for your answer in reply to my question above. Two more questions come to mind:

      (1) How much of Lewan's regression might be due to him having to do more because his interior line support is less this year? (I honestly don't know O-line mechanics well enough to understand how one position is affected by the strengths or weaknesses elsewhere on the line.)

      (2) Given what you know about the offensive linemen in the pipeline, what's your assessment for next year as well as for 2+ years out?

      (3) Given what you've seen of Touissaint this year, if he had last year's line in front of him do you think he'd be last year's Touissaint?

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    5. 1. I don't think Lewan's perceived regression is a function of the other guys on the line. I think Lewan himself has regressed. He's getting more penalties, and he has missed some blocks that I think he normally makes.

      2. I think next year is going to be rough again, simply because we'll be replacing the three interior lineman and perhaps Lewan with a bunch of young guys. I think 2014 will be a pretty decent year with some redshirt sophomores and juniors in play, but yeah, I don't think 2013 looks very rosy, either.

      3. I think Toussaint has taken a step back. I think he's a little slower and has been dancing too much, but he has started running a little better over the past two weeks. I think it looks like he put some weight on in the offseason, and I don't think it was necessarily good weight.

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    6. I think the lack of depth could possibly be contributing to (b) here. When your backup is a walk-on who clearly doesn't have the ability, your job is going to be pretty secure. Not that these guys are necessarily slacking off, but they're not going to be looking over their shoulder like they normally would at Michigan. Under normal circumstances, a starter will be in jeopardy of losing his job if he underperforms, so he's got to bust his butt in practice. Maybe we're not quite seeing all of that this year.

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  2. Anyone else terrified at the thought of what OSU's offense (which is basically a super-charged version of what we saw from NU on Saturday) is going to do against UM's defense? If UM's D plays as poorly as they did this weekend, OSU will score in the mid-40's.

    Question: Was the holding penalty that negated Mark's TD on the KR legit? (I didn't see any of the second half until UM's final miracle drive and the OT) I would hate to think that UM was gifted a win because of a bogus penalty.

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    1. Count me as terrified. tOSU put up 34 points on Michigan last year, and they will likely do the same this year. Devin Smith = DeVier Posey, and Floyd will be reading Smith's name off the back of his jersey quite a bit.

      Also, the lack of a pass rush is worrisome. There were some plays where the coverage was quite good, but the Northwestern QB had enough time to make a sandwich while in the pocket.

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    2. There was definitely holding on that kickoff return - although the guy they flagged really wasn't the worst culprit. The most blatant one happened much earlier in the play. NW was fortunate that they flagged the last guy who held, giving them the ball near midfield instead of deep in their zone.

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  3. I'm not sure I share your opinion that the OL was better in this game. I agree that a healthy mix of run/pass on different downs is important but aside from the 50-yard run by Fitz I thought this game felt a lot like last week when the interior OL was abused. Was it just me or did I see the coaches flipping Omameh from RG to LG depending on the way they wanted to run? I think Barnum has been AWFUL for a while now and Mealer has just been okay. I'm surprised they haven't considered making a change.

    Thank you for mentioning the holding calls. I hate whining about the officials, but I've never seen so many stretched jerseys as I did on Saturday (especially the first half) and the only time they called holding was when NW had Hawthorne pinned on the ground. I guess they let it go both ways, but I think when you hear Michigan's coaches this week say "we had trouble getting off blocks" that means "their outside guys were holding the hell out of us and we never got a call."

    I'm still not sure how we won, but I'll take it! When your only losses are to two top-five teams away from home and a night game with your third string QB forced into action I guess it has been a solid season.

    AC1997

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  4. I know Denard is the guy, but I can't say enough about how impressed I've been with Gardner. Maybe I'm watching him through maize glasses, but it seems to me that Gardner makes better reads and is way more accurate. He goes through his progressions and runs, whereas Denard will continue to stand there. When Gardner throws an INT, it's usually because of a wrong read, rather than footwork or accuracy problems. I think he would have had a few more completions yesterday if you take away a couple of drops.

    That being said Denard has more arm strength and is a much more explosive runner. However, I feel that Borges is just more comfortable calling plays for Gardner since his accuracy opens up all the route trees and such.

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    1. It's not that Gardner makes better reads - it's that Gardner makes reads, period. Denard doesn't really know how to read a defense and go through progressions. Gardner still makes poor decisions/reads (witness yesterday's interception), but he's a more advanced passer.

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    2. I second that. Denard will try to force a lot of throws. He's not a smart quarterback. Devin, on the other hand, can be SEEN going through his progressions. There are often times when he needs to react faster than he does, the bomb to Gallon was a good example of that, but I believe he will get there next year after fall camp.

      I just hope our freshmen lineman can step up the challenge, and all be RS-FRSH-Lewan-esque.

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    3. That is not true. Denard makes reads and progressions. He's not GOOD at it, but he does do it.

      To me, the big advantage Devin has is instincts and touch. He has a good sense for the situation and will put touch on the ball when needed. He's a make-plays kinda kid who won't be perfect, but will convert a lot of big 3rd (and 4th) downs for our team.

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    4. "Doesn't do it" and "isn't good at it" are basically the same thing to me. It doesn't matter if he does it when his second or third read is to throw it into the defender's chest.

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  5. I also don't really care what Kovacs number is, nor do I really care what our jerseys look like as long as they aren't hideous. I may have my preferences but it's not a SERIOUS SITUATION. I also don't care when the student section arrives. If they want to have a good time and avoid lines, it's fine by me. Way too much is made of these things by that very popular Michigan blog.

    Don't see how Michigan won the game in the trenches at all. The ypc were 4.2 and 4.3, and we have a fantastic tackling LB and DB group. Both QBs faced a lot of pressure, but it seemed to me that Gardner faced more. The difference in this game was Gardner's passing (aided by the WR's, who had a significant advantage vs NW's DBs.) Gardner passed for 9.5 ypa while Colter was at 6.9. Siemeion looked better than them both as a passer, but his playing time was limited.

    Gardner's late INT was frustrating, but the passing game was what was making the difference for Michigan.

    Roundtree is catching more balls because Gardner puts more air under the ball and has far better touch.

    I agree that 7-3 is fine for how well the team has played but it's frustrating that they have only one loss in conference play and that loss has put them out of contention for the conference title - and that one loss is due to a strategic error by the coaching staff (moving Gardner to WR and thereby making him unavailable as the emergency QB). Maybe they lose anyway - on the road in Lincoln, at night, is no easy task - but the coach's decision gave them no chance to win. That's tougher to swallow than your typical conference loss, even though most fans thought it was a worthwhile gamble. Maybe it was, but it backfired.

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    1. Tackling was okay-ish. Michigan lost contain on a large number of plays. The game would have been more manageable if they would have forced Northwestern to cut towards the middle of the field on a couple of plays and if whoever was assigned to spy Colter did his job a little better. My main disappointment was with the defense; I thought Gardner did great.

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    2. What stands out about Gardner is his poise and presence. He seems to play under control and make quick decision wrt scrambling. He puts good touch on the ball too, but he doesn't have the same arm that Denard has.

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    3. I agree that Denard has a stronger arm, but it doesn't matter much if the ball is sailing 10 yards overhead or going into the arms of a defender.

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    4. I agree. Devin looks like the better passer, but I don't think he has the arm strength to be an NFL QB. His accuracy is meh (but much better than Denard's erratic targeting.)

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