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| Lakewood (OH) St. Edward's TE Sam Grant could be Michigan's next commitment for the 2012 class |
Dadeville (AL) Dadeville defensive tackle Rod Crayton was offered by Michigan. He's a 6'2", 290 lb. nose tackle type with offers from Auburn, LSU, Penn State, and several others. Kids from the deep south rarely escape the gravitational pull of SEC schools, so don't get your hopes up.
Lakewood (OH) St. Edward's tight end Sam Grant decommitted from Boston College. He was committed in only the loosest of terms, since virtually everyone knew that he was looking for better options. But when you're a program like BC, you have to let your higher level prospects have a little bit of freedom to explore other schools. The 6'4", 240 lb. tight end has shown interest in Arkansas and Oklahoma - and visited both - but most recruiting gurus expect him to choose Michigan in the very near future.
West Roxbury (MA) Catholic Memorial cornerback Armani Reeves decommitted from Penn State. The 5'9", 185 lb. Reeves had been committed to the Nittany Lions for several months, along with teammate and best friend Camren Williams, a linebacker. Williams committed to Ohio State a few days ago, and now Reeves will choose between the Buckeyes and Wolverines. Head coach Brady Hoke made an in-home visit to Reeves on Sunday night, OSU head coach Urban Meyer will visit on Monday night, and Michigan defensive coordinator Greg Mattison will visit Reeves on Tuesday evening.
OFF THE BOARD
Trotwood (OH) Trotwood-Madison cornerback Cam Burrows, a 2013 prospect, committed to Ohio State on Thursday. The 6'1", 195 lb. defensive back had long been considered a lock for the Buckeyes. Burrows is in the early running to be the top player in the state of Ohio.
Washington (D.C.) H.D. Woodson cornerback Kenneth Crawley committed to Colorado on Sunday. Crawley had previously been committed to Tennessee, but decommitted a few weeks ago. He briefly flirted with the idea of visiting Michigan.
Waco (TX) Waco cornerback Will Hines decommitted from Missouri. And then he committed to Arkansas.
Columbus (IN) East quarterback Gunner Kiel switched his commitment from LSU to Notre Dame. The 6'4", 220 lb. Kiel probably made a smart move here, because his pledge to LSU was confusing from the beginning. LSU is a run-oriented offense with a coach not known for developing quarterbacks. Meanwhile, Notre Dame has produced several solid quarterbacks over the years, including Joe Montana and Joe Theismann. Unfortunately for Kiel and Notre Dame, the more recent products have been solid college quarterbacks who have turned into NFL busts.
Monrovia (CA) Monrovia defensive tackle Ellis McCarthy switched his commitment from Cal to UCLA. He had just committed to Cal at the beginning of January, but beloved recruiter Tosh Lupoi left Cal to coach at Washington, which obviously upset several Cal recruits. UCLA has sucked for a long time, so this seems like a bad move on McCarthy's part.
South Bend (IN) Washington running back David Perkins committed to Ohio State. He had previously been committed to Notre Dame. Perkins was considered to be an option for Michigan at running back when Bri'onte Dunn re-committed to Ohio State, and now both targets are in Columbus. The 6'2", 225. lb athlete will likely compete at linebacker for the Buckeyes.
Cincinnati (OH) Oak Hills offensive lineman Caleb Stacey changed his commitment from Michigan to Cincinnati. Stacey is a 6'4", 280 lb. guard/center and his stated reason for flipping to Cincinnati is a desire to play closer to home.
Stacey decommit puts me back in panic mode on the OL. I was hoping for 7 and now we're down to 4. Garnett's a 50-50 chance, Diamond's 1 in 5, and Kozan sounds unlikely. I like their chances to get to 5, but I was really hoping for more, especially on the interior where (at best) Bryant, Miller, and '12 recruits will be the only returning players in 2013. I know everyone else thinks 7 is too many, but I have less faith than most when it comes to true freshman contributing in '13. Crossing my fingers re: Garnett.
ReplyDeleteOn that note - is Garnett a potential center or is he too tall/big? If intelligence is critical for the position, he seems like a good candidate.
@ Lankownia 8:32 a.m.
ReplyDeleteI'm not worried too much about the offensive line. I know you're worried about numbers and history suggests that a couple guys will disappear or whatever, but I think this is a pretty good class and at least 3 out of 4 of the current commits will eventually make a good impact at Michigan. We have good chances with Garnett and Diamond, so even if we don't get both, I think we'll end up with at least 5. If we get 5 this year, then we can go for 5-6 again next season.
I will be concerned if we end this class with just 4 players, but 5 should be adequate, IMO, because they're high level prospects.
I don't think Garnett is too big to play center, but I think he's more of a guard. Bars is a potential center, too.
I think chances are we get 5 also, I just wanted more than 'adequate' numbers. Also, I agree with you that this class seems to be more likely to have a higher success rate than others...but I wonder if that's rational. 2 reasons come to mind:
ReplyDeleteThe first is Kalis, who is reportedly ready-to-play as any recruit in memory. But Magnuson, Bars, Braden are fairly typical guys for Michigan to get - they'll red-shirt and may (or may not) pan out. Over time, their probability to 'make it' isn't much higher than 50 or 60%.
The other factor, I guess, is simply opportunity. With playing time being more than just a long-term vision, these kids are more likely to be motivated to do right.
I have always been hoping for five or six. To recruit guaranteed back-ups or flame-outs (which is what they would be doing with 7) is not a great strategy in my opinion. I think the important thing this year is bringing in a couple who can play in the two deep right away, and Kalis and Garnett and to a lesser extent Magnusson would get you that.
ReplyDeleteStacey struck me as an interior OL with a relatively low ceiling who would take a good 2-3 years to develop. They just do not need guys like that right now. If he were a developmental tackle, it would be a different story. Also, if Grant commits at TE, that may free up Williams to move to LT.
UM is in on some good prospects for 2013 too, so there is no need to recruit kids who do not have a good shot just to add numbers to the position group. I will take a couple years for Hoke to balance out some position groups.
@ Lankownia 9:33 a.m.
ReplyDeleteIf 2 or 3 guys pan out from this class, then I think that's sufficient. Really, it would be quite strange to see 4 or 5 guys on the offensive line who pan out from the same class. Imagine having a complete front line of fifth year seniors or even fourth year juniors in 2015 or 2016. It sounds great...but it never happens.
@ Painter Smurf 10:07 a.m.
ReplyDeleteI think Kalis is the only guy who's ready to play next year. I really like Garnett, and Magnuson is pretty good, too, but they both need a redshirt. If they have to play next season, I think we're in trouble.
Getting 7 is not 'guaranteeing' anything, it's just recognizing the reality that not every guy is going to make it. Especially if you don't red-shirt them all. If you recruit 6 guys, you're probably going to have 3 that are starter-caliber. Recruit 5 and your chances of falling below that are higher.
ReplyDeleteI don't think 2 guys from this class is sufficient unless you assume the best-case-scenario for 2013: everyone is healthy & eligible, Lewan doesn't turn pro, Bryant pans out, Miller pans out. That would mean 4 returning linemen in 2013. The reasonable worst-case is just two.
You can get by with depth of 6 or 7 on the OL, but you want 8 or 9, and may need that many depending on health. Michigan was pretty lucky this year to have only Barnum miss much time.
They need 3 guys from this class to make it, otherwise, true freshman (or walk-ons) are going to play. They're probably going to either way, but hopefully they don't have to start.
Assuming the best-case-scenario is a bad idea.
We'll see about Williams. The TE situation is even more dire right now, so I think it's highly unlikely he moves to OT anytime soon. But the need could change long-term.
ReplyDeleteMore likely, IMO, is that one of the tall DL (Wormley or Godin) end up on OL after things get sorted-out on the DL.
I agree that Kalis is the only guy truly ready to compete for a starting spot. Regardless, they need one other true freshman (possibly two) to at least fill out the 2-deep on paper, take snaps with the 2nd team, etc. I just get this feeling that the offensive staff is not enamored with some of the OL incumbents and I expect to see some guys get a shot earlier than is typical at UM.
ReplyDelete@PS
ReplyDeleteOL depth next year isn't really a problem unless injuries take a big toll. There are a lot of Seniors. The only real issue is OT depth. I wouldn't expect any freshman to play prominent roles next year. It's 2013 when the need becomes critical. The 2012 class is so important because most OL need that red-shirt year to get up to speed. Only the elite guys can skip it, and even people like Lewan and Long red-shirted.