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| Blake Countess |
Height: 5'10"
Weight: 182 lbs.
High school: Olney (MD) Good Counsel
Position: Cornerback
Class: Redshirt sophomore
Jersey number: #18
Last year: I ranked Countess #9 and said he would be the starting field corner with 55 tackles and 2 interceptions. He tore his ACL in the first quarter of the season opener and missed the rest of the year.
I was pretty hyped about Countess coming into the 2012 season, and I thought he would be one of the Big Ten's best corners. But on punt coverage in the season opener against Alabama, he came limping off the field, and things didn't look good. A torn ACL kept him out for the year, and he was replaced by Raymon Taylor (who coincidentally had very similar numbers - 45 tackles, 2 picks - to what I predicted for Countess). He was running by the spring, but the coaching staff held him out of all game-like activities to prevent re-injury.
Countess is full go now and has been practicing with the team this August. Observers say that he looks like the old Blake Countess, and the old Blake Countess was a 4-star recruit who picked off Devin Gardner in the 2012 spring game. Talent-wise, he might deserve to be higher on the list, but Michigan returns Taylor and Courtney Avery; additionally, junior Delonte Hollowell has received some practice buzz, and there are some other talented young guys. Countess is the best of the bunch right now, but corner is a position where young guys can contribute (as Countess did in 2011). If he stays healthy, I think the baseline for Countess will be honorable mention all-conference. There are a few other good corners to compete with for those all-conference honors (Purdue's Ricardo Allen, Michigan State's Darqueze Dennard, etc.), but Countess should give it a run.
Prediction: Starting cornerback; 55 tackles, 2 interceptions
Hopefully, he is fully healed from his injury. Losing him was somewhat of a disaster - not having him around last year really affected Mattison's flexibility with schemes. Countess has the talent to be UM's best CB in a while.
ReplyDeleteLosing him didn't hurt anywhere near the loss of Jake Ryan will, even if only for part of the year... While good, Countess was never the guy that offenses spot-lighted on every down the way Jake Ryan demanded.
ReplyDeleteRyan is going to be back by the time we really need him: to win a big ten championship. Even with him gone we have Cam Gordon, who I think is a very capable backup, and Brennen Beyer, who is a big body who doesn't make huge mistakes.
DeleteWhen Countess went out last year, we had Avery and Taylor. Taylor hadn't started a game, and Avery isn't as talented as Countess. There were some growing pains. That loss hurt.
I think the loss of Jake Ryan for the whole year might be EQUAL to the loss of Countess for the whole year. However with Ryan being projected to return by big ten play, or maybe earlier according to Roy Manning, I feel this injury hurts much less than the Countess injury.
-JC
You are aware that Big Ten play starts in October, not November, I'm sure. By my estimation, by the time Ryan comes back to form, Michigan will have already played ND, PSU, and MSU. Of course if he comes back to form earlier, the impact of his loss is far less. But my assessment is based off of the belief that he won't be back to form until the Nebraska game, obviously not a sure thing, but we all have to develop our own frame work.
DeleteCountess was not missed as much as we thought he would be as evidenced by the marginal drop in production from his projected production to that of his replacement.
Comparing Ryan in 2012 (in his 3rd year) to Countess as true freshman in 2011 is kind of apples and oranges. Ryan red-shirted his freshman, Countess was thrust into a starting role almost immediately. Furthermore, it's easy to avoid a corner (don't throw to his side of the field), while a LB who is moved around on every play requires a lot more attention. The impact may be just as significant, but the offense doesn't have to pay as much attention to him at the snap.
DeleteCountess could be just as valuable as Ryan if he becomes the proverbial lock-down CB we think he can. That would let our safeties loose to focus on play-making.
I tend to disagree, Paul. Countess WAS missed quite a bit. Looking back on last year, I think Taylor and Countess should have been the starting corners (over JT Floyd). That was unlikely to happen given Floyd's seniority and experience, BUT even if it didn't, Floyd was an idiot and got himself suspended for the bowl game against South Carolina. Insert Countess in his place, and perhaps last year's 8-5 season is 9-4 instead. Maybe Michigan even wins another close game or two.
DeleteBut was he missed as much as Ryan will be missed? This is the interesting question to me.
DeleteBoth are/were significant losses, so we are splitting hairs here. Ryan is disruptive and likes to make plays behind the LOS. Countess is valuable because not having a good cover corner limits defensive play-calling and makes life easier for offenses. I agree fully with Thunder that at minimum, UM wins their bowl game with a healthy Countess. Ryan was a key cog in many games himself. They are two of the best players on UM's defense and neither had a good back-up while injured, although it was pointed out that CB depth is starting to improve. Sam depth is a couple years away still.
DeleteIf he is as good as predicted, I expect him to get more than 2 INTs.
ReplyDeleteThere has been some talk that he doesn't have the greatest hands. He has good talent to break on the ball and knock it down, but he's one of those guys who supposedly is playing defense for a reason. ("They put the guys on defense who can't catch.") Additionally, Michigan corners in recent years haven't got many picks, and even the best college corners sometimes end up with 3 or 4 picks. Tyrann Mathieu ended up with 2 interceptions in each of his two years in college. Patrick Peterson had 1, 2, and then 4 picks in his three years. Marlin Jackson had 3, 3, 2, and 1. Leon Hall had 3, 2, 4, and 3.
DeleteHe could very well end up with more than 2 picks, but that's probably not off by much.
Dee Milliner at Alabama was another CB that comes to mind who had terrible hands. The guy was an absolute stud, but could have had a few more interceptions. Think he had about 2 interceptions per year in college. When you can shut down anyone and hold the edge though, interceptions are just icing on the cake.
DeleteApart from just hands, I think what really brings down INT numbers is that teams will tend to avoid testing established CBs. The guys who get the big INT numbers tend to be the "other" corner on a team with one great one, or the obscure new players who are really good but haven't been extensively scouted.
DeleteHey Magnus, could/would you include some deeper stats for guys in the secondary like Times Targeted or Knocked Down Passes?
ReplyDelete